Wednesday 8 July 2009

Dropping the Truth on CNBC














None of the things he is discussing is at all radical. Its simply clear-eyed, straight forward, reality based analysis. No hope, no cheerleading, no bull. Its like a bucket of cold water versus the feel good warm fuzzies the long-only, fully invested crowd (aka, the pompom squad) that typically comes on TV to talk their books.

Rosie has run through the usual metrics of economic factors we have discussed ad nauseum:

• Green Shoots was unsubstantiated nonsense;

• Unemployment Rate will rise considerably higher; this will be the “mother of all jobless recoveries.”

• The rise from the 666 lows was the mother of all oversold bounces due to multiple expansion, not profit gains;

• The S&P5009 is likely to have earnings of a modest $50 over the next 4 quarters;

• Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator when we are dealing with an inventory or manufacturing recession; During a credit crisis recession, Unemployment is a coincident indicator cycling back into the economy in a negative way;

• We are going through a massive consumer deleveraging

• The Consumer is not going to save the economy anytime soon.

Part two below....













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